Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Mucous Discharge A Week Before Period

How to secure economy


Beginning Tuesday session was based on two events, one of which put pressure on the dollar, and the other on the contrary supported him. Pressure on the "green" was observed by high-yielding currencies, when he only strengthened against the yen. Cause this turn of events was the information from the Wall Street Journal that Germany is willing to reconsider its position and agree to grant new aid package for the Greek without previously put forward demands, which caused large-scale sales of "buck" against euro, pound and Swiss franc. The advantage in the relationship with apparent yen amid reports that Moody's Investors Service began to study Japan's debt rating for possible downgrade. Until the end of trading advantage over the U.S. currency was able to retain only the euro, the pound had lost all the gains and closed the auction with a minus.

Japanese currency attempted to correct position, but was satisfied with a small correction of losses. The results of the data on the state's economy, published yesterday, the optimism did not have, report S & P / Case-Shiller showed continued decline in prices in the metropolitan areas of the country - house price index for 10 U.S. cities declined in March by 0.6% m / m, and for 20 cities fell 0.8% m / m. In the annual comparison figure fell by 2.9% yoy and 3.6% y / y, respectively. Was not the best and the report of the research group Conference Board - Consumer sentiment in May have fallen sharply - the consumer confidence index fell to 60.8 vs. 66.0 April.

forecast assumed that


index was 66.4. Negative trend yesterday news flow and supported the report of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) of Chicago, which he submitted Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), known as the business barometer Chicago, in May fell to 56.6 from 67.6 in April. Projections were reduced to the fact that the indicator will drop in May only to 63.0. Addition to the general mood was no rainbow record Fed Dallas demonstrated slowing of business activity - the index of business activity in May was -7.4 vs. 10.5 in April, however, the production index reached 12.7, after 8.1 in the previous month, but the employment index was 11.6, when in April it was 13.4.

From the news today, going to the U.S., we can distinguish ADP report on the dynamics of employment in the private sector in May, where growth is projected at 177 thousand, which is almost the same index in April, when it was 179 thousand and data from ISM manufacturing PMI index for the whole country - the forecast assumes the appearance of slowing down, 58.4 after 60.4 in April.
EUR
Next European currency showed good stability and closed the day near the new local maxima relative "Bucks" that have been tested in the first half of the session. Less optimistic than expected results for the EU economy that went yesterday, did not cause investors strong disorder and the single currency was subjected to low sales. Preliminary index of consumer prices slowed growth in May and showed +2.7% vs. +2.8% Previously, which adds to the argument to the collection of assumptions about reducing the chances of further tightening by the ECB.
Today, the focus will be data on the final evaluation of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of Germany and the Eurozone as a whole for the production sector, it is anticipated that in May indicator decreased in comparison with April, to 58.2 after 62.0 in Germany, and up to 54.8 against 58.0 for the entire euro area. Forecast on Italy and France, too, is waiting for reducing this indicator. This may disappoint the market and provide pressure on the euro, reducing expectations of further rise in interest rates. Anticipated improvement in employment in France could be some compensation point, but very small.
economic news "islands" were not enough, you can remember only a record of service land inventory, noting the rise in prices on the British housing. In April there was +0.8% m / m, although in the annual comparison was negative, -1.3% y / y. In addition, there was a message, that the British Chamber of Commerce changed its forecast for the rate increase by the Bank of England, it was said - BoE will go to increase its rates in August raising it to 0.75% from 0.50%.

Previously it was assumed that the British regulator begins to tighten in May. Today's package of news is much more saturated meaningful statistics. Primary focus will be Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the production sector, opening the unit of publications on business activity in the economy of Britain.

anticipated that in May there was a decrease, and an indicator mark 54 after 54.6. This can reduce the wave of optimism in the market. In addition, ready to statistics on lending for April, forecasts suggest that the number of approved mortgage loans will decline to 47,250 after 47557, at a time when mortgage lending is very grown up to 0.9 billion, after +0.4 billion pounds previously. An increase of 0.25 billion pounds, after +0.1 billion, and waiting for the unsecured consumer loans.

not devoid of high interest will be information on the aggregate M4 money supply - in April, is expected to see growth of 0.3% m / m after a 0.1% m / m earlier that in terms of growth in lending is a positive signal.

JPY

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar and other major currencies on the Tuesday session. The reason for this attitude toward the yen was a message that the rating agency Moody's has begun to explore the rating of sovereign debt for possible downgrade. The grounds have been named to the continuing difficulties the Japanese government in matters of fiscal consolidation, as well as addressing issues related to financing the restoration of objects destroyed by the disaster.

data presented today in May noted slight improvement in sales of automobiles in the country, reducing fixed at -37.8% y / y after -51.0% y / y previously. The head of the Bank of Japan said today that the Japanese economy is still under intense pressure, but its recovery is expected in the second half of the fiscal year.

As for the prospects for Yen, it is likely that news of the ranking of countries have already played, and the market will wait for new guidelines. Perhaps now investors will wait for information from U.S. employment, which means a high probability of range trading.

Analyst: Arkady Nagiyev




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