on Thursday after reaching a level of 1.6417 a pound, I canceled the additional script. Today I look at the schedule, GBPUSD course to fulfill it. The level of 1.6417 pound it back to 1.6304 and today is trading around 1.4343 on line Lb. 50% level of support remains for the bulls to 16:30 MSK. expect flat in a narrow price range. Due to possible cross-swings, but the whole picture until 16:30 MSK must meet the forecast. My expectations for peyrolsu on the chart.
Note:
Forecast Green - is the main scenario for the day.
forecast of gray - this is an additional scenario for the case Market abandon the basic scenario.
The notes of the day under a fixed price of only those events that have affected the currency market and filled in as information becomes available. Events in red, had a negative impact on the currency, green positive impact.
Resistance: 1.6383 Release of the report on the labor market in the U.S. reached 45 figures. The price is trading in the zone between the lines U2-U1. This is a bad place before leaving NFP. Traditionally, the first Friday of the month 16:30 MSK I look flat. The report is important for the foreign exchange market, so no news on the eurozone, the right to revert to the line Lb. Since ADP on Wednesday showed that the new jobs in the private sector was established in 5 times smaller than the expected figure (38k vs. 190k), it is likely that the NFP would be worse than forecast 150K. Ie if the report will be released within the 120K-150K, I think the market reaction will be weak on the news. There will have to look at the revision of previous data, as well as unemployment. If the unemployment rate fell by weak data on jobs, it eliminates the negative report. If the rise, the dollar will decline. I think The euro is today able to set a new high.
Forecast Green - is the main scenario for the day. The notes of the day under a fixed price of only those events that have influenced the foreign exchange market and filled as information becomes available. Events in red, had a negative impact on the currency, green positive influence.
remains at elevated levels. This indicates the continued weakness in the labor market and increases fears about the outcome leaving tomorrow Labor Report for May. As it was presented, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits declined by 6 thousand to 422 thousand, the number of secondary applications decreased by 1 thousand and the total value reached 3,711 thousand have decreased U.S. factory orders in April have been falling by 1.2% m / m, when the expected decline only by 1.0% m / m. The largest reduction occurred in orders for motor vehicles machinery and equipment, aircraft and other expensive goods. The main theme of today's news background is employment in the United States. It is assumed that the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls in May increased by 194 thousand, after rising by 244 thousand in April, while unemployment remains at 9.0%. This information, of course, is significant because Market expects to receive new guidelines and evidence. If data will be weaker than expected, as it happened for almost all week at the output of the economic information, the assumption that the Fed will begin the third phase of quantitative easing will have a solid support and pressure on the dollar rise. In addition, the market will provide the composite PMI index of ISM for non-production sphere, the indicator is expected with an increase in May to 53.7 after 52.8 previously. Positives for this indicator can smooth out the situation if it is a problem for the dollar and vice versa add optimism, in the event strong record on labor. Admittedly, these assumptions are valid if confirmed predictions fact.
EUR
In most countries of the euro area has been closed because of the religious holiday, but the news affecting the euro was missing. Macroeconomic statistics did not go, and the single currency was influenced by political events of the plan. A successful auction of the English treasury bills and the information that an agreement in principle plan to help Greece achieved were the main reasons that has crippled the fears and caused massive purchases of the single currency. In addition, the market liked Tight comments Jean - Claude Trichet about the need for the formation of the Ministry of Finance in the EU and a deeper intervention in economic policy Eurozone countries that are struggling with the debt crisis. According to reports, the new agreement on aid to Greece can be achieved if governments Eurozone countries agree with the requirements of Germany that provides for the participation in the financing of private sector creditors and the availability of programs in the country austerity and privatization. The specific value of the plan is still unknown, but it was a warning that he will surpass the amount of the assistance program of 110 billion euro, which was agreed in May last year. The main object of attention among the news today, leaving the EU will be information about the final Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) services in Germany and the Eurozone in May. It is assumed that the rate of decline compared to April in Germany to 54.9 from 56.8, and the euro area up to 55.4 against 56.7. Composite index PMI, across the euro area is likely to also celebrate the May decline, to 55.4 after level of 57.8 previously. This, of course, does not give any reason for optimism, as if the indicator will be worse than expected, the popularity of the euro is much worse. However, fundamental to the present day will be information from the U.S. and the response to other news can be restrained.
GBP
British pound showed multidirectional volatility in trading on Thursday, but finished the day with a plus against the dollar. Support sterling provided good data on the economy were better than forecast. Increased activity in the UK construction sector accelerated in May after declining in April and the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the construction sector, not as an example indicator production sector rose to 54.0 vs. 53.3, when the projections were reduced to what is observed in 53.7. Maintaining a good mood and has contributed to such component of the report, as new orders showed a significant increase, indicating good prospects. In addition, the solid growth of purchasing prices for raw materials construction noted in the report and are a major factor of inflation, increased expectations that the BoE will go to higher rates in the near future. Today market will be the last part of the picture of business activity in Britain - will publish the May PMI index for the services sector, which is the most voluminous on "islands" and which contributes the lion's share in GDP. It is assumed that the rate will rise a bit and show 54.4 after 54.3 in April. If actual results will be worse than expected, the "cable" will again be under pressure. At the same time all the transaction date will be made with an eye to the top American session, when the employment report will be released in the U.S..
Resistance: 1.4514 times dramatic changes have occurred - the session Thursday "green" finished with losses against all the majors. In early trading opportunity for sales "buck" was re- intensified pessimism regarding the economic recovery in the U.S. against the publication of weak data in the previous session. Further pressure on the dollar provided good data on the economy of Britain and the news that the Eurozone leaders agreed in principle on a new aid plan Greece. Against the dollar were harsh statements Trichet, who said the need for tighter fiscal rules in the euro-zone creation of a ministry Finance. To all other investors did not like the warning of rating agency Moody's rating on the possible revision of the U.S. in a downward already in the near future. 
Statistics on the state's economy, published yesterday, is not distinguished positive results and also had contributed to the drop in popularity "Bucks". The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week dropped, but
Statistics on the state's economy, published yesterday, is not distinguished positive results and also had contributed to the drop in popularity "Bucks". The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week dropped, but remains at elevated levels. This indicates the continued weakness in the labor market and increases fears about the outcome leaving tomorrow Labor Report for May. As it was presented, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits declined by 6 thousand to 422 thousand, the number of secondary applications decreased by 1 thousand and the total value reached 3,711 thousand have decreased U.S. factory orders in April have been falling by 1.2% m / m, when the expected decline only by 1.0% m / m. The largest reduction occurred in orders for motor vehicles machinery and equipment, aircraft and other expensive goods. The main theme of today's news background is employment in the United States. It is assumed that the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls in May increased by 194 thousand, after rising by 244 thousand in April, while unemployment remains at 9.0%. This information, of course, is significant because Market expects to receive new guidelines and evidence. If data will be weaker than expected, as it happened for almost all week at the output of the economic information, the assumption that the Fed will begin the third phase of quantitative easing will have a solid support and pressure on the dollar rise. In addition, the market will provide the composite PMI index of ISM for non-production sphere, the indicator is expected with an increase in May to 53.7 after 52.8 previously. Positives for this indicator can smooth out the situation if it is a problem for the dollar and vice versa add optimism, in the event strong record on labor. Admittedly, these assumptions are valid if confirmed predictions fact.
EUR
In most countries of the euro area has been closed because of the religious holiday, but the news affecting the euro was missing. Macroeconomic statistics did not go, and the single currency was influenced by political events of the plan. A successful auction of the English treasury bills and the information that an agreement in principle plan to help Greece achieved were the main reasons that has crippled the fears and caused massive purchases of the single currency. In addition, the market liked Tight comments Jean - Claude Trichet about the need for the formation of the Ministry of Finance in the EU and a deeper intervention in economic policy Eurozone countries that are struggling with the debt crisis. According to reports, the new agreement on aid to Greece can be achieved if governments Eurozone countries agree with the requirements of Germany that provides for the participation in the financing of private sector creditors and the availability of programs in the country austerity and privatization. The specific value of the plan is still unknown, but it was a warning that he will surpass the amount of the assistance program of 110 billion euro, which was agreed in May last year. The main object of attention among the news today, leaving the EU will be information about the final Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) services in Germany and the Eurozone in May. It is assumed that the rate of decline compared to April in Germany to 54.9 from 56.8, and the euro area up to 55.4 against 56.7. Composite index PMI, across the euro area is likely to also celebrate the May decline, to 55.4 after level of 57.8 previously. This, of course, does not give any reason for optimism, as if the indicator will be worse than expected, the popularity of the euro is much worse. However, fundamental to the present day will be information from the U.S. and the response to other news can be restrained.
GBP
British pound showed multidirectional volatility in trading on Thursday, but finished the day with a plus against the dollar. Support sterling provided good data on the economy were better than forecast. Increased activity in the UK construction sector accelerated in May after declining in April and the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the construction sector, not as an example indicator production sector rose to 54.0 vs. 53.3, when the projections were reduced to what is observed in 53.7. Maintaining a good mood and has contributed to such component of the report, as new orders showed a significant increase, indicating good prospects. In addition, the solid growth of purchasing prices for raw materials construction noted in the report and are a major factor of inflation, increased expectations that the BoE will go to higher rates in the near future. Today market will be the last part of the picture of business activity in Britain - will publish the May PMI index for the services sector, which is the most voluminous on "islands" and which contributes the lion's share in GDP. It is assumed that the rate will rise a bit and show 54.4 after 54.3 in April. If actual results will be worse than expected, the "cable" will again be under pressure. At the same time all the transaction date will be made with an eye to the top American session, when the employment report will be released in the U.S..
JPY 
Japan's currency also was in a multidirectional movements of the dollar in trading on Thursday and finished the day with a plus. The uncertainty of the political plan associated with a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister of Japan, at the beginning of the day pressed on the yen. However, news, which determined a negative for the dollar, amid reports by Moody's of a possible revision to the worst rating of the U.S., and malovpechatlyayuschie data on the state's economy, the yen helped turn the tide. Data on Japan's economy today is not published, the market will be waiting for data on employment in the U.S., but the ongoing political crisis in Japan is also likely to be influenced. On the Asian session, the yen strengthened against the dollar, possibly this is a consequence of the desire of investors to sit out in the shelter before the new guidelines. Analyst: Arkady Nagiyev 
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